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Carl Chester Lloyd

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Predictions 2020

January 26, 2020

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This is that fun time of the year where everyone makes a new year’s resolution, a top 10 list of something, or makes wild predictions about the future. I’m going to do all three, but only tell you about the latter two in this article. Some will be for the next year, some for the next decade, and some I will not live to see.

1. React vs. Angular vs. Vue

reactvueusa

React will become dominant over Vue and Angular (at least in the west). React has been consistently growing, and holding on to popularity over the years. Meanwhile Angular has fallen short. Both Angular and React are backed by big companies, Google, and Facebook respectively, but Angular seems to be falling short in the race for dominance. Vue is not backed by a large company, but has generated enough interest to be considered as one of the big three. However, Vue has generated a lot of interest in China. I think there will be a split where many Chinese companies and developers will gravitate toward usage of Vue whereas React will continue to have relevance in the west.

reactvuechina

You will notice how this second graph depicting searches coming out of China show React and Vue being fairly neck and neck. I actually think we will start to see Vue leave React in the dust from the Chinese perspective.

2. C# for Enterprise

C# will start to overtake java as the enterprise language of choice. Java is the current king of language choices for enterprise environments. However, I believe C# will overtake Java in the next decade as the enterprise language king. Microsoft seems to have great popularity in enterprise environments. They also consistently support C# and .Net. There is also a common conception for Java being viewed as legacy already, but still widely used. This will lead to more companies adopting the Microsoft backed language over the Oracle backed language.

3. Wider Golang Adoption

GolangInterest

Go is a server-side language created, and backed by Google. Over the last decade it has greatly increased in popularity, and I believe it will continue to become more popular. It is a fun, simple language with a lot of power behind it, and a healthy community to support it. This is definitely a language to keep an eye on.

4. IoT is watching you

SmartHouse

Much of the current IoT industry around “smart” devices will fail, but new innovations in IoT will lead to greater commericial adoption of IoT devices. The internet of things is here to stay. That said, “smart” devices tend not to be very smart, overly costly, and mostly useless. There will not be as many companies trying to hock “smart” devices going forward, but many more IoT devices will find commercial success. The more successful IoT devices will not have to market themselves as smart, and will simply be the device of choice. Much like how no one today says color television. With God’s love we may even find our way to abandoning Ring and Nest type devices.

5. Drones, Drones, Drones

Drones will be used for Doordash and Grubhub delivery services. Doordash, Grubhub, and similar services have become massively widespread. However, there is a huge problem in that they still require actual people for the delivery of food to the destination. Drones will change this to speed up delivery time, and greatly reduce the cost for the companies that compete in this field. This is less of a prediction, and more of a wish upon a star. I do think there is a lot of space for growth in this area.

6. Machine Learning Crash

Machine Learning will lose a lot of the current hype. Machine Learning was very hyped up in the last year as a major breakthrough in artificial intelligence. Consequently, there was a goldrush of developers and companies rushing to apply it to just about everything under the sun. However, much of this hype is blown out of proportion. ML and DL are amazing technologies, but their use cases tend to be overhyped. Just slapping machine learning on your resume or company has been a way to bolster your evaluation over the last year or two. Going forward I see this hype dying down as more people understand the limitations, and proper scope of the technology.

7. Vinyl is bad

Vinyl is a fad. It’s retro, and that is much of its appeal. It’s also crap. The sound is worse, and the degradation of the material makes it obsolete. That said I actually think CDs will make a comeback for much the same reason as vinyl.

8. Tiktok is still new right?

Tiktok has been growing in popularity among the kids these days. It’s owned by a Chinese company called Bytedance. I can see this being swallowed up by either Google or more likely Tencent.

9. Elon in Space

We will see at least one non-government entity have a successful manned mission to the moon by 2030. NASA is never going back to the moon nor to Mars. The days of government backed missions is dead and gone. That said private companies have been making progress on this front, mostly I assume because of the owner’s ego, and will make it to the moon. The moon, while no longer sexy as a target for space exploration, makes a logical first step for going further out into the solar system, and beyond.

10. Boardgames are a thing

Boardgames will achieve widespread mainstream popularity, and many will be app assisted creating many new jobs in the games industry for software developers aside from the more traditional videogames route. I might be blinded by my current endearment towards boardgames, but whatever. Boardgames of today are not like the boardgames of yesteryear. No longer does Monopoly or Risk reign supreme. This last decade has had something of a renaissance among board games and the boardgames community leading to many companies creating wonderful new boardgames with a variety of themes, and playstyles. Kickstarter has had great influence in getting new companies and boardgames off the ground, and I expect this to continue. There are even many app assisted games which is a fun new space for developers to get involved.

11. California will slide into the ocean like the mystics and statistics say it will. Also, Florida will become unlivable due to hurricanes.

Great song!


Carl Lloyd

Written by Carl Lloyd. He spends his time playing with technology, and learning new things.